Pollutant emissions of conventional energy generators with increased renewable energy sources: a 2030 New York case study

This work analyzes 2019 hourly data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) energy generators to forecast pollutant emissions for 2030. Leveraging methods and insights from the Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) project’s optimization tools and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) historical data, we produce a method to determine future emissions scenarios within the NYISO region to be used as part of operational studies. Integrating historical data with forecasting software, this study evaluates the impact of renewable energy variability on pollutant emissions, informing policy decisions for a sustainable energy future.