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June 21, 2026Ocean EngineeringOpen Access

Wave climate characteristics and long-term trends in the northern South China Sea: A 31-year hindcast study for offshore engineering applications

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Hindcast study analyzes wave conditions for offshore engineering in the northern South China Sea, indicating significant trends.

To analyze wave climate characteristics and long-term trends in the northern South China Sea for engineering applications.
Conducted a 31-year wave hindcast from 1990 to 2020 using a high-resolution, unstructured-grid wave model.
Validated model performance against in situ buoy measurements and satellite observations.
Partitioned the northern SCS into five wave climate subregions using principal component analysis and a Gaussian mixture model.
Identified significant regional and seasonal contrasts in wave characteristics across five subregions.
Observed that the 95th percentile significant wave height (Hs95) is primarily influenced by monsoonal conditions, while the 99th percentile Hs is affected by typhoons and swells.
Noted pronounced increases in mean and extreme Hs, particularly in the Taiwan Strait during spring and winter.

Guan et al. (2026) studied this question.

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