Ship-Type Based Failure Risk Index (STFRI) for Vessels Transiting the Çanakkale Strait: Evidence from 2024 Data

This study aims to identify the risk factors affecting navigational safety in the Çanakkale Strait by analyzing failure and deficiency reports of vessels transiting the Strait in both southbound and northbound directions throughout 2024. The analysis first examines failure types, vessel categories, flag States, and temporal distributions in detail; subsequently, critical failures are identified, and a Ship-Type Based Failure Risk Index (STFRI) is developed to determine comparable risk levels among vessel types. The highest number of failures was observed in dry cargo and container vessels. In the flag State analysis, open registry countries Liberia, Panama, and the Marshall Islands exhibited the highest failure frequencies. In this context, Turkish-flagged vessels recorded a total of eight failures, indicating a relatively lower failure count compared to the top three open registry flags; however, the reported failures include critical cases primarily related to main engine and navigational equipment. This finding suggests that the Turkish-flagged fleet is in a comparatively better position in terms of overall failure burden, while also highlighting the continued importance of maintenance, inspection, and training processes in preventing critical failures. Failure frequency peaked in January and declined to its lowest level in March. Additionally, no significant correlation was identified between failure severity and gross tonnage. Overall, the STFRI model indicates that dry cargo and container vessels constitute the highest-risk group in the Çanakkale Strait. This approach is considered to provide valuable contributions to safety policies, inspection prioritization, traffic management, and navigational safety in the Strait