Global accessibility of food ecosystem services under economic inequality, food production, and infrastructure shocks

Reconciling food ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand requires understanding not only food production capacity but also the transport infrastructure connecting resources to people. Economic and transport disparities cause inequalities in access to food ES, making the global food system vulnerable to disruptions. To evaluate global transport network efficiency in delivering food ES, we developed a spatial accessibility analysis method to assess the balance between food supply and demand. Our framework includes case analyses under the following scenarios: uniform transport costs, economic disparities, and regional shocks, including production disruptions and infrastructure damage caused by hazards in North America, Eastern Europe, and East Asia. Our results show that current state of transport infrastructure and food production distribution lead to unmet demand, particularly in Asia and Africa. Comparisons between equal and economic analysis show that economic differences between regions further exacerbate the ES supply-demand mismatch. Accounting for economic costs increases supply surpluses across most sub-regions, particularly in Southeast and South Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe, while unmet demand also increases. About two-thirds of the global unmet demand is concentrated in Asia. This coexistence of surplus supply and unmet demand suggests transport bottlenecks and network inefficiencies, meaning that although food is available it cannot be effectively delivered to all the locations where it is needed. Among all scenarios analyzed, economic inequality has the greatest impact on food accessibility. Alongside food production, the structure and cost of transport are important factors in global food accessibility, even without considering trade relations and geopolitical influences.