Professional politics and competitive authoritarianism: the cases of 2023 Presidential and 2024 local elections in Turkey

Despite record levels of inflation, millions of immigrants and widespread economic difficulties, Erdoğan’s AKP won the 2023 Presidential Elections in Turkey. The limited resources that deprived the opposition of benefitting fully from the best professional political services delivered by public opinion researchers, political consultants, communication and social media experts and analysts were one of the main factors that facilitated the AKP’s victory. Yet, especially in local elections, the cost-efficient use of political professionals can help opposition parties effectively challenge incumbents in competitive authoritarian regimes, as revealed by the CHP’s local election victory in 2024. From a broader theoretical perspective, this paper argues that, to retain the legitimacy benefits of a genuinely competitive polity based on a compelling degree of electoral ‘uncertainty’, incumbents in competitive authoritarian regimes usually need to reveal a full proficiency in the legitimate as well as Machiavellian use of modern professional techniques in electoral politics. The paper supports its arguments through the examination of existing studies on professional campaigns in 2023 and 2024 elections in Turkey as well as with primary evidence deriving from relevant publicly accessible sources and eight interviews with some key political professionals delivering services to the AKP and CHP.