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This paper investigates how evidence competition explains the Dunning-Kruger curve using a language model. It aims to clarify the mechanisms behind confidence measurement in decision-making.

June 22, 2026Open Access

Mount Stupid in the machine: how evidence competition explains the Dunning-Kruger curve in a language model

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This paper investigates how evidence competition explains the Dunning-Kruger curve using a language model. It aims to clarify the mechanisms behind confidence measurement in decision-making.
Utilized a large language model to analyze the Dunning-Kruger curve patterns.
Validated a log-probability proxy to represent the decision-making process in the model.
Conducted experiments on different tasks to observe the behavior of novice decision-making under varying conditions.
Demonstrated that the confident-before-competent rise and recognition near-tie are architectural features, replicating on structurally different tasks.
Showed that novice humility is restored in the absence of forced commitment, suggesting a critical influence of decision-making context.
Validated the connection between self-efficacy and the competing-routes race in the model.

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Implication

Randomized trial examines the Dunning-Kruger curve in language models, suggesting a new approach to measuring confidence in decision-making.

Cite This Study

Tomas Pødenphant Lund (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a38d129da1bad9caca30dd3 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20778263

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Implication

Randomized trial examines the Dunning-Kruger curve in language models, suggesting a new approach to measuring confidence in decision-making.

Mount Stupid in the machine: how evidence competition explains the Dunning-Kruger curve in a language model

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Implication

Cite This Study

Mount Stupid in the machine: how evidence competition explains the Dunning-Kruger curve in a language model

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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