Crying wolf? Threat perception, and public willingness for self-defense

Most citizens in Taiwan are aware of the growing threat of a Chinese invasion, but does a “war on the horizon” motivate them to be more supportive of self-defense? Psychological research suggests that the perceived urgency of a crisis often influences attitudes and behavior. Building on this literature, we formulate three hypotheses related to the Taiwan case. Using data from eight waves of nationally representative surveys conducted by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research between March 2022 and November 2024, we examine whether citizens’ perceptions of the likelihood of Chinese military action within the next five years affect their willingness to fight for Taiwan. We find that a sense of urgency alone does not increase public support for self-defense; instead, support is driven by the combined effects of perceived threat from a PLA invasion and confidence in U.S. commitment. Moreover, these combined effects vary across partisan groups. These findings provide important insights into decision-making during crises and offer practical implications for policymakers.