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This research aims to analyze the impact of market volatility on retirement withdrawal outcomes using simulation techniques.

June 23, 20260 citationsOpen Access

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Market Volatility and Withdrawal Outcomes: Bootstrap Evidence from 100,000 Paths, with Left-Tail Emphasis

LFLuca Fittabile

Key Points

This research aims to analyze the impact of market volatility on retirement withdrawal outcomes using simulation techniques.
Simulated 100,000 independent 30-year retirement paths using U.S. historical returns from 1928–2025.
Applied 5-year block bootstrap resampling with a specified seed for randomness.
Evaluated five different withdrawal rules across identical market paths.
Utilized portfolio weights of 50/30/10/10 with legacy CPI λ = 10%.
Sensitivity analysis with λ = 0% tested the robustness of legacy-CPI.
The outcomes suggest varying effectiveness of withdrawal rules under market volatility.

Abstract

Addendum to Paper 2.1 — Dynamic Amortization Governance Model (DAGM), by Luca Fittabile. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20675378 We simulate 100,000 independent 30-year retirement paths from U.S. historical returns (1928–2025) using 5-year block bootstrap resampling (seed 42). Portfolio weights are 50/30/10/10 with legacy CPI λ = 10% on the DAGM corridor. Five withdrawal rules are evaluated on each identical market path: DAGM, DARVA, Guyton–Klinger, fixed real 4% SWR, and CPW. Headline results use λ = 10%; a matched λ = 0% sensitivity arm tests legacy-CPI robustness. Research and educational material; not investment advice.

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Market Volatility and Withdrawal Outcomes: Bootstrap Evidence from 100,000 Paths, with Left-Tail Emphasis

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Abstract

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