Key result
Global age-standardized CVD mortality from high SBP fell ~1.4% annually despite rising absolute deaths.
Why the study?
CVD remains the leading cause of death and disability globally, with high systolic blood pressure as a critical modifiable risk factor, prompting analysis of temporal trends and future projections to 2045.
Observational
Despite a decline in age-standardized mortality and DALY rates, the absolute global burden of cardiovascular disease attributed to high systolic blood pressure has significantly increased from 1990 to 2021, driven by population growth and aging.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
Alerts clinicians to sustained HSBP-CVD burden; leaves open optimal prevention targets for 2045 projections.
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death and disability worldwide, and high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is considered among its most critical modifiable risk factors. This study analyzed the temporal trends of the global burden of CVD attributed to HSBP from 1990 to 2021, examined its relationships with age, period, and birth cohort, and projected future trends to 2045. METHODS: The study employed a joinpoint regression model to evaluate the temporal trends of CVD burden attributed to HSBP from 1990 to 2021 and used an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort. Additionally, a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied to project the disease burden trends up to 2045. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) of CVD attributed to HSBP increased significantly. However, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) showed a consistent declining trend. The study highlights significant regional differences, with the disease burden increasing most markedly in regions with a middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and decreasing most significantly in high SDI regions. Additionally, the study revealed gender differences, with the decline in ASMR and ASDR was more pronounced in females, while males exhibited a higher overall disease burden than females. Projections from the BAPC model indicate that from 2022 to 2045, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs will continue to rise, while ASMR and ASDR will decline further. CONCLUSIONS: This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of CVD attributed to HSBP globally, highlighting significant sex, age, and regional differences in disease burden as well as their temporal trends. The findings underscore the importance of targeted prevention strategies, particularly for high-risk populations. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers to formulate effective interventions to reduce the global disease burden.
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Hu et al. (2025) conducted an observational in Cardiovascular disease attributed to high systolic blood pressure. High systolic blood pressure vs. 1990 baseline was evaluated on Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for cardiovascular disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure (AAPC -1.43%, 95% CI -1.64 to -1.22, p=<0.001). From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized mortality rate for cardiovascular disease attributed to high systolic blood pressure decreased significantly with an average annual percent change of -1.43%, despite an increase in absolute deaths.
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