A comprehensive geriatric assessment-based prediction model demonstrated robust discrimination for 90-day major adverse postoperative events in older colorectal cancer patients, with a derivation AUC of 0.802.
Cohort (n=559)
No
Can a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)-based prediction model predict 90-day Major Adverse Postoperative Events in older colorectal cancer patients undergoing elective laparoscopic radical resection?
A CGA-based prediction model effectively predicts short-term prognosis and 90-day major adverse postoperative events in older colorectal cancer patients, enabling personalized risk stratification.
Effect estimate: OR 2.20 (95% CI 1.20-4.22)
p-value: p=0.012
Older colorectal cancer (CRC) patients face significant postoperative risks. This study aimed to develop a prediction model to quantify the short-term prognosis of these patients following laparoscopic surgery. This prospective study enrolled patients aged ≥ 60 years undergoing elective laparoscopic radical resection (May 2021–April 2024). The primary outcome was 90-day Major Adverse Postoperative Events (MAPE). A comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) was performed to identify independent risk factors. MAPE occurred in 23.7% of the derivation cohort and 22.5% of the validation cohort. Multivariable logistic regression identified six independent preoperative predictors: weight loss (OR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.20–4.22), ADL scores (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.03–1.20), preoperative BUN (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.01–1.29), ASMI (OR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.47–0.98), hypoalbuminemia (OR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.02–1.89), and TNM stage (OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.18–2.60). The prediction model demonstrated robust discrimination (AUC: derivation 0.802; validation 0.779) and excellent calibration. Decision curve analysis confirmed its clinical utility across a wide range of threshold probabilities. This CGA-based tool effectively predicts short-term prognosis, enabling personalized risk stratification and identifying high-risk candidates to guide future perioperative management strategies. CGA-based prediction model for short-term prognosis in older colorectal cancer patients
Yang et al. (Wed,) conducted a cohort in Colorectal cancer (n=559). Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) prediction model was evaluated on 90-day Major Adverse Postoperative Events (MAPE) associated with preoperative weight loss (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.20-4.22, p=0.012). A comprehensive geriatric assessment-based prediction model demonstrated robust discrimination for 90-day major adverse postoperative events in older colorectal cancer patients, with a derivation AUC of 0.802.