From attitudes to adoption: Policy-relevant determinants of EV and e-fuel vehicle preferences in South Korea

As global efforts to combat climate change intensify, electric vehicles (EVs) and electricity-based fuels (e-fuels) have emerged as promising alternatives for decarbonising the transport sector. Despite governmental initiatives, EV penetration in South Korea remains low, and public awareness of e-fuels is still in its infancy. This study aims to identify the key determinants of consumer preference for EVs and e-fuel vehicles by analysing demographic and sociopolitical variables, including climate change perception and attitudes toward government policy. A nationwide survey of 509 respondents was conducted, and twelve machine learning models were compared to evaluate their predictive performance. The Elastic Net model, selected as the most effective, was used to extract key influencing factors. Cluster analysis via k-means further enabled interpretability of model coefficients. The results show that climate change awareness, particularly perceptions of energy systems and the prioritisation of climate action over economic growth, strongly influences EV preference, while perceived severity of climate change impacts is more closely associated with e-fuel vehicle preference. Moreover, individuals with stronger personal responsibility towards climate mitigation are more likely to favour green mobility options. This study provides critical insights for designing differentiated public engagement strategies and policy frameworks tailored to the unique attributes and adoption barriers of EVs and e-fuel vehicles.