Affective polarization and the politics of visibility: Digital diffusion of the Takae anti-base protests in Okinawa

This study explores how digital communication shaped the visibility and emotional dynamics of the 2016 anti-U.S. base protest in Takae, Okinawa. Using Japanese-language Twitter (now X) data, it analyzes how structural resources, message characteristics, and emotions influenced political diffusion across polarized communities. To capture both entry into diffusion and large-scale amplification, the study combines hurdle models with quantile regression. The findings reveal a two-stage process of online diffusion. At the entry stage, visibility is driven primarily by structural resources such as the follower size and favorites. At higher levels of diffusion, however, affective and semantic dynamics become more important. In the anti-base movement Support community, anger facilitates high-end diffusion, whereas in the anti-protest Opposition community, disgust becomes a major driver of virality. Hashtags do not consistently amplify diffusion, while tweets containing external links become less likely to spread widely, particularly among opponents. The analysis further shows how Twitter connected Okinawa with mainland Japan through influencer-centered circulation, increasing national visibility while simultaneously intensifying political polarization. These findings suggest that online visibility is not distributed evenly across digital publics but structured by asymmetries in attention, affect, and communicative influence. The case of Takae therefore illustrates how digital activism operates through polarized emotional dynamics and unequal regimes of visibility in contemporary Japanese political communication.