Between self-doubt and overconfidence: the double-edged role of self-evaluation bias of competence on motivation

Students’ academic motivation depends not only on actual competence but also on how competence is perceived. Grounded in Self-Determination Theory (SDT), this study examined how the alignment between perceived and actual competence relates to different forms of motivation. A sample of 967 French sixth-grade students (Mage = 11.22 years; 53.3% female) completed measures of perceived and actual mathematics competence as well as intrinsic, identified, introjected, and external regulation. Response Surface Analysis (RSA) was used to compare 37 polynomial model families and capture nonlinear effects of competence congruence and discrepancy. Results revealed distinct patterns across motivational regulations. Intrinsic motivation followed a non-parallel asymmetric congruence pattern, identified regulation was best explained by a symmetric quadratic surface, introjected regulation showed a level-dependent quadratic pattern, and external regulation was primarily associated with low perceived competence. Overall, competence alignment, particularly avoiding underestimation, appeared critical for fostering autonomous motivation.