Network approach to dynamic risk factors: a new theoretical path with practical implications

Dynamic risk factors are central to forensic risk assessment, treatment, and research. However, the predominant Propensities Model for understanding these factors provides only a limited account of their aetiology, causal mechanisms, and contribution to sustained changes in the risk of reoffending. This manuscript proposes the network approach to dynamic risk factors to elaborate and refine the Propensities Model. From a bottom-up perspective, dynamic risk factors emerge from interactions among risk-relevant momentary affects, behaviours, and thoughts. When sufficiently strong, these interactions form self-sustaining networks that may further interrelate into a higher-order organisation of causally connected dynamic risk factors underlying the risk of reoffending. A dynamic risk factor's relative influence on this risk is reflected in its position within the network and the number and strength of its causal connections. Examining this network structure offers concrete opportunities for hypothesis generation, refined case formulation, and targeted intervention.PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENT The network approach to dynamic risk factors may support practitioners in developing more individualised case formulations by considering aetiology and causal mechanisms of sexual offending; and identifying which dynamic risk factors are most influential within an individual’s risk of reoffending. This approach may also help practitioners by providing guidance on how to prioritise treatment and risk management efforts around the most influential dynamic risk factors to enhance the The network approach to dynamic risk factors may enhance theefficiency of interventions aimed at reducing sexual reoffending.