Evolving the theory of dynamic risk

The Theory of Dynamic Risk (Thornton [2016]. Developing a theory of dynamic risk. Psychology, Crime & Law, 22(1–2), 138–150. https://doi.org/10.1080/1068316X.2015.1109092) was formulated a decade ago in response to some of the weaknesses of the Propensities Model (Mann et al. [2010]. Assessing risk for sexual recidivism: Some proposals on the nature of psychologically meaningful risk factors. Sexual Abuse, 22(2), 191–217. https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063210366039). This paper reviews subsequent theoretical and empirical work to see how it now fares in the light of these developments. A programme of theoretical and meta-theoretical analysis led by Ward is discussed. Findings from two substantive empirical research programmes, one led by Hanson and the other by Olver, are considered. The paper positions the Theory of Dynamic Risk relative to these theoretical developments and examines its ability to explain new empirical findings. It is argued that the Theory of Dynamic Risk is able to incorporate these theoretical developments and can explain empirical findings that are hard to reconcile with the Propensities Model. Suggestions for future theoretical and empirical work are made.PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENT Clinicians may use the Theory of Dynamic Risk in initial case formulation and understanding progress in treatment. This may allow a deeper understanding of the treatment needs of their clients than is offered by a simple list of dynamic risk factors.