Conflict by latitude: Disentangling the spatial clustering of civil war

Civil wars in the post-Cold War period concentrate in lower latitudes. We investigate the sensitivity of the strong negative latitude–conflict correlation to eight plausible mediating factors: climate, geography, age of first settlement, demography, culture, colonial legacy, political institutions, and economic development. Results indicate that institutions and especially development are the most plausible intermediate pathways. Yet latitude prevails as a relevant correlate of civil war even when controlling for all factors simultaneously. We suggest a possible causal chain from latitude via environmental conditions to socioeconomic development and conflict, although alternative pathways remain plausible and merit further examination.