Where the Black-Horned Capuchins Roam: Present and Future Ranges of Sapajus nigritus and Their Overlap with Pine Plantations

Abstract The introduction of pines in Southern America to supply the wood industry has promoted interactions with native fauna, including the black-horned capuchin ( Sapajus nigritus Goldfuss, 1809). In southern Brazil, this species feeds on pine sap, causing significant economic losses. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to model the current and future potential distribution of S. nigritus under different climate change scenarios and conducted spatial analyses to evaluate land cover changes and the overlap between pine-producing areas and the species’ range. Current climatic suitable conditions cover about 1 million km 2 , mainly in southern and southeastern Brazil, but projected to decline by 31.7 to 89.8% depending on climate change scenario and timeframe. Presently, the distribution of S. nigritus overlaps with 96.7% of pine-producing municipalities and 86.5% of Brazil’s pine plantation area. Over the past 38 years, tree plantations expanded markedly within the species’ range, increasing from 1.1% in 1985 to 4.5% in 2023. During the same period, the number of native forest and plantation fragments grew by 35.1% and 569.3%, respectively, while their average size declined 25.6% and 37.0%. These changes indicate severe habitat fragmentation and isolation. Historical land use trends have likely intensified interactions between capuchins and commercial pine plantations, explaining the increase in reported damage. Our findings underscore the pressing need for integrated management strategies that balance economic interests in forestry with the conservation of S. nigritus amid accelerating environmental change.