Ideological Misalignment in Britain

The correlation structure of attitudes is a critical feature for characterising the ideological beliefs of an electorate. Recent research has shown that, contrary to conventional wisdom, social and economic conservatism are negatively correlated in most countries. In this paper, we use a geospatial within-country approach to extend this theoretical model, showcasing the utility of Multidimensional Item Response Theory models and Correlational Class Analysis clustering techniques for processing electorally-salient data. We find that many Westminster constituencies demonstrate a local organisation of attitudes that is orthogonal to the correlations of attitudes evident amongst British parties - a phenomenon we term “ideological misalignment”. Using data from the British Election Study Internet Panel, we demonstrate the explanatory power of ideological misalignment on voter behaviour, highlighting in particular the associations of ideological misalignment with political disengagement; social and geographical disadvantage; and anti-status-quo political behaviour.