Temporal effects of flooding regimes on lion (Panthera leo) population core habitat and connectivity across a seasonally flooded landscape, the Okavango Delta

Introduction Habitat loss resulting from land conversion or climate change is a significant threat to large carnivore conservation. Landscape models that can identify important cores and corridors may help to mitigate these threats if incorporated into species conservation planning. However, many conservation plans ignore temporal variation in habitat selection across landscapes that experience extreme seasonal fluctuations in environmental conditions which may be further amplified by climate change. Methods We assessed African lion ( Panthera leo ) movement data to compare differences in the size of core habitats in the Okavango Delta, the connectivity between them, and potential connectivity to surrounding areas under different flood regimes. Resistance surfaces revealing landscape permeability to movement at maximum and minimum flood were developed, for the study period, which served as proxies for climatic conditions that result in multi-decadal high and low flood phases. Using cumulative resistance kernels and least-cost paths, we calculated changes in the size of core population areas and degree of connectivity between cores during high and low flood conditions. Results During low flood conditions, connectivity across the Okavango Delta is high and large areas of core lion habitat are available. Conversely, during high flood conditions, the core lion areas of the southern and central Okavango Delta shrink, and the western core disappears along with linking corridors, which may push lions to the periphery and increase conflict with people. At the edges of the Okavango Delta, connectivity to the south and west appears limited, likely due to higher human densities. In contrast, connectivity to the east and north is less impeded by people. Discussion Conservation interventions should focus on ameliorating human lion conflict along the Okavango Delta’s edges, which could improve connectivity potential for lions to bolster surrounding populations, buffer the Okavango’s lions against extinction risk and potential negative impacts of climate change and improve genetic diversity.