Randomized trial estimates fare cut effects on public transit demand in Belo Horizonte, suggesting significant service type variability.
I estimate the short-run price elasticity of demand for public transit in Belo Horizonte, Brazil using monthly system reports between January 2022 and March 2026, exploiting a 25 percent fare cut on Trunk lines in July 2023 with Circular and Feeder lines as control. The line-level panel with clustered inference and a three-month event study (parallel pre-trends validated, p=0.87) yield a robust estimate near -0.20 across specifications. Heterogeneity across service types is substantial: bus rapid transit responds at -0.42, while diametrical lines carrying over a third of ridership are essentially inelastic at -0.03.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Gregório Costa Luz de Souza Lima (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: