Who Owns the Environmental Cost of Fish Trade? Unveiling the Impact of Exports and Imports on the Fishing Footprint

Using a balanced panel of ten major fishing and trading nations (China, Chile, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand, Vietnam, Norway, India, Denmark, and Canada) over the years 2000–2020, this study investigated the relationship between international fishery trade and the fishing footprint, a consumption-based ecological indicator measuring the bioproductive marine area required to sustain seafood consumption. Cross-sectional dependence tests, second-generation panel unit root tests (PANICCA), LM bootstrap cointegration analysis, and long-run coefficient estimation using fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), fixed effects, and method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) are all part of the sequential econometric framework used in this analysis. Findings consistently show that the domestic fishing footprint is positively correlated with imports, domestic production, real GDP, and per capita food consumption, but adversely correlated with fishery exports. Additionally, MMQR estimates show that the negative export link becomes stronger at higher quantiles of the distribution of fishing footprint, indicating that the moderating influence of exports is strongest in nations that are already under a lot of ecological strain. Although the panel data do not allow for direct dissection of these channels, these findings are interpreted considering three potential mechanisms: certification-linked catch limits, aquaculture substitution in export volumes, and distant-water fleet displacement. It is recommended that policymakers include sustainability criteria into import laws, broaden the scope of eco-certification, and make investments in aquaculture to supplement the management of wild-capture fisheries. The findings of this study contribute significantly to the monitoring of global sustainability agendas, particularly aligning with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water) by providing empirical evidence on how trade dynamics influence the fishing footprint.