The Potential Impact of Macro/Mesoplastic Pollution on Beach Recreation: Determining Economic Value Losses with Comparative Models

Macro/mesoplastic (M/MP) pollution has become a critical stressor degrading beach quality, particularly in densely urbanized coastal settings. This study quantitatively assesses the impact of M/MP pollution on beach recreation demand and related local income. In metropolitan coastal areas such as Istanbul, increasing M/MP loads diminish perceived hygiene and aesthetic quality, alter visitor behavior, and generate measurable losses in cultural ecosystem services, including recreation and scenic value. Based on this hypothesis, (i) a multi-beach travel cost site-selection model (random utility, mixed logit) to incorporate M/MP density as an environmental quality attribute; and (ii) a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to estimate conditional willingness-to-pay (WTP) for enhanced beach cleanliness and hygiene, were applied. Changes in visitor welfare and reductions in regional expenditures were translated into local income effects using input–output multipliers. Results indicate that higher M/MP concentrations significantly reduce visit probability and per-capita spending. Due to the higher M/MP density at Büyükçekmece Beach (271.6 items/m²), the utility decreases (–134.4), whereas at Florya Beach, which has a lower density (202.2 items/m²), the utility assumes a relatively higher value (–101.3). Visitors expressed a mean WTP of approximately 40 TL for improved cleanliness. To our knowledge, this is the first study in Turkey to evaluate M/MP-driven recreational losses using advanced econometric modeling. Overall, findings demonstrate that rising M/MP densities erode recreational demand and regional spending, while positive WTP signals that targeted policy interventions—such as increased cleaning frequency and upstream pollution reduction—may yield net welfare gains.