Proxy wars in a multipolar world: mechanisms of strategic influence and power reconfiguration

Proxy wars allow states to pursue objectives without engaging in confrontation. This paper examines how states use proxy wars as a strategic tool to influence power dynamics in a multipolar international system. It regards the situation in Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine. It explores four causal mechanisms, i.e. risk transfer, regional probing, alliance cohesion, and proxy autonomy, and their functioning in a multipolar environment. The findings provide nuanced support for all four hypotheses, showing that the influence of risk transfer, regional probing, alliance cohesion, and proxy autonomy varies across different strategic environments, such as Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine. The importance of the research is that it adds a mechanism-oriented, theoretical framework on how structural multipolarity is connected to conflict behaviour, as it reinstates the idea of proxy wars as systematic, strategic, and central to power competition in the twenty-first century. Through the application of a qualitative approach that provides a combination of both thematic coding and the process of tracing, the study concludes that proxy wars are indeed a calculated attempt at influence, allowing states such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) members to direct conflicts without leading to a direct escalation.