Landscape ecological risk informed by ecosystem services: spatial heterogeneity across functional zones in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

To achieve an accurate assessment of landscape ecological risk (LER) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration, this study integrated ecosystem services (ESs) into a quantitative LER model and explored its spatiotemporal evolution across spatial functional zones. Four representative indicators of ES were selected to enhance landscape vulnerability assessment, and a coupled LER index bridging landscape patterns and functions was constructed. The results showed that high-risk areas were predominantly localized in the Central Core Functional Zone (CCFZ) and the Southern Functional Expansion Zone (SFEZ), whereas the Northwestern Ecological Conservation Zone (NECZ) exhibited a relatively low risk. During the study period, the overall LER in the BTH region decreased significantly, with a marked decline observed in the CCFZ and SFEZ from 2010 to 2023. Driving force analysis revealed that population density was the primary determinant in the CCFZ, while other functional zones were mainly influenced by natural factors and their interactions. This study would provide robust theoretical support for hierarchical ecological governance and offer a scientific reference for the optimization of regional territorial spatial patterns.