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June 29, 2026Geophysical Research LettersOpen Access

An Atmosphere–Land–Ocean Coupled Global NWP System: Performance Evaluation for Potential Operational Use

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Authors

SKSumit KumarIndian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyIMImranali M. MominNational Centre for Medium Range Weather ForecastingSKSukhwinder KaurLovely Professional University

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Implication

Randomized trial assesses the influence of ocean-atmosphere coupling on monsoon forecasts, suggesting improved prediction capabilities.

Key Points

  • This study aims to evaluate the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling on monsoon forecasts for July 2024.
  • Utilized the coupled NCMRWF Unified Model (C-NCUM) for the analysis.
  • Forecasts were compared against the operational atmosphere-land model (NCUM) using GPM rainfall and SST observations.
  • Evaluated wet biases and forecast accuracy in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and Core Monsoon Zone.
  • C-NCUM showed improved simulation of rainfall and SST variability, reducing widespread wet biases.
  • Demonstrated enhanced SST-convection interactions, leading to decreased spurious low-level convergence.
  • Achieved higher spatial correlation with observations, although forecast skill remained weaker over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.

Cite This Study

Kumar et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a420b7af91bb43ea9192842https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120923
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