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June 29, 2026The Electricity JournalOpen Access

Modeling residential solar PV adoption in Ireland: An agent-based modeling approach

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Authors

IFIias FaiudOllscoil na Gaillimhe – University of GalwayMSMichael SchukatOllscoil na Gaillimhe – University of GalwayKMKarl MasonOllscoil na Gaillimhe – University of Galway

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Implication

Randomized trial models adoption trends in Ireland, indicating key factors influencing residential solar PV uptake.

Key Points

  • This study aims to simulate and forecast residential solar PV adoption in Ireland.
  • Developed an agent-based modeling approach integrating economic, policy, and behavioral factors.
  • Calibrated the model with historical adoption data, achieving an R² of 0.9971 and RMSE of 1661.62.
  • Performed sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to evaluate adoption trajectories.
  • The model accurately aligns with historical adoption data, showcasing strong predictive performance.
  • Sensitivity analyses reveal subsidies, electricity prices, and PV system costs significantly affect adoption.
  • Future adoption scenarios provide insights into potential policy and economic impacts on residential PV uptake.

Cite This Study

Faiud et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a420b7af91bb43ea9192972https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2026.107555
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