The Ties that Bind?: Affinity and Challenges in Contemporary Brazil-China Relations

As China’s diplomatic and economic outreach towards the Global South has expanded in recent decades, so too have its efforts to align with important Global South countries and create movement away from US hegemony. Brazil’s relationship with China is emblematic, as it is a big player in Latin America and in multilateral bodies, and due to its historical relationship with the United States. While theories about China’s rise lead us to expect that relations between China and Global South countries such as Brazil should be positive and straightforward due to economic interests, normative identity, and successful diplomatic outreach, empirical studies yield mixed results, with challenges arising from host state domestic politics. We explore how Brazil’s domestic policy preferences, public opinion, and polarisation shape China’s ability to achieve its diplomatic goals in multilateral (focusing on BRICS) and bilateral (especially agribusiness trade) settings. We find that despite an overall strong relationship, Brazil diverges from China’s policies and preferences in important ways, exposing limits on China’s efforts. In addition to tracing major diplomatic statements, we draw on newly collected survey data reflecting Brazilian public opinion on salient issues.