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This study aims to understand the relationship between land use transitions and landscape ecological risk in Jilin Province over three decades.

June 30, 2026Ecological IndicatorsOpen Access

Revealing the nonlinear driving mechanisms and scenario simulation pattern of landscape ecological risk in Jilin Province using XGBoost-GeoShapley and PLUS model

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Randomized trial quantifies landscape ecological risk in Jilin Province, suggesting implications for sustainability.

This study aims to understand the relationship between land use transitions and landscape ecological risk in Jilin Province over three decades.
Analyzed land use changes and landscape ecological risk from 1990 to 2020.
Utilized XGBoost-GeoShapley and the PLUS model for scenario simulations and risk assessment.
Integrated socioeconomic and environmental data to evaluate spatiotemporal heterogeneity in ecological risk.
From 1990 to 2020, over 75% of LER was classified as low and medium risk; high-risk zones were primarily in the west.
Forecasts indicate high-risk areas could reach 14.0% in natural scenarios, while ecological protection reduces this to 0.8%.
Driving factors showed complex, nonlinear interactions, with significant spatial variances across different geographical areas.

Wan et al. (2026) studied this question.

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