Impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on European energy landscape and carbon emission reduction

To combat global warming, the world faces a significant challenge in reducing future carbon emissions. The Russian–Ukraine war profoundly influences the EU's energy structure, which will in turn greatly affect the trajectory of the EU's carbon emissions in the future. The emission factor method and LEAP model were used to scientifically evaluate the impact of the Russian–Ukraine war on the global energy pattern and carbon emission reduction. The results show that the Russian–Ukraine war will lead to a drastic change in the global energy import and export pattern. The proportion of Russian energy in the global energy export pattern will drop significantly, while the proportion of energy exports from the United States and other countries will increase remarkably. Meanwhile, the proportion of new energy will be greatly increased, forming a new energy structure system. In the 2025-2030 the proportion of new energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy in EU countries will increase by 12%. The new energy system could potentially enable the EU to achieve carbon neutrality around 2040 under optimistic assumptions, approximately 10 years earlier than the current target schedule. This study contributes to the optimization of the EU’s energy structure to proactively address potential energy crises and establishes a scientific foundation for the implementation of its carbon emission reduction strategies.