Land cover changes are important indicators reflecting transformations in socio-economic and environmental conditions. This study analyzed the dynamics of land cover change in the Shkodra Region during the period 1991–2021 and assessed potential spatial changes for the year 2030 using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technologies. Satellite imagery obtained from the USGS platform was used to identify the main land cover classes, including water bodies, built up areas, flood land, forests, agricultural land, mixed forests, shrubland and woody land. The results revealed significant transformations in land cover structure and land use patterns, closely associated with urbanization processes, infrastructure development, agricultural intensification, and increasing pressure on forest and wetland ecosystems. and use forecasting for 2030 was performed using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS, based on land cover transitions observed between 1991 and 2021, representing a 30-year calibration period. The year 2030 was selected as a medium term forecasting horizon to support regional spatial planning and sustainable environmental management strategies aligned with current territorial development objectives. The prediction model incorporated spatial variables such as slope, aspect, and distance from road networks to simulate future land cover transitions. The study highlighted the role of geospatial analysis in supporting decision-making for territorial planning and the sustainable management of natural resources in a region characterized by high morphological and hydrographic diversity, such as the Shkodra Region. The findings provide a scientific basis for the development of policies aimed at reducing environmental degradation and improving territorial sustainability.
Sinjari et al. (2026) studied this question.