Identifying and Prioritizing Disaster-Oriented Urban Transformation Areas Using GIS–AHP: The Case of Akşehir

The occurrence of material damage and loss of life due to disasters in human settlements has underscored the necessity of an integrated disaster management system that encompasses pre-disaster risk management. Within such an integrated framework, pre-disaster risk management primarily aims to identify disaster risks and to eliminate or minimize these risks as far as possible. Particularly in areas exposed to a high likelihood of severe economic losses and human casualties following potential disasters, risk identification constitutes a fundamental prerequisite for both the development of damage prevention strategies and the delineation of urban transformation areas and interventions. This article aims to identify and prioritize urban transformation areas under disaster risk in Akşehir, which is located in a first-degree seismic zone, to develop intervention strategies for disaster risk reduction. In the conceptual phase, the study focuses on key criteria and priorities used in determining urban transformation areas in earthquake-prone regions in Türkiye and constructs a matrix consisting of four main criteria and eighteen sub-criteria. The criteria included in this matrix were classified in the ArcGIS environment using the reclassification method based on existing condition analyses and expert opinions and subsequently weighted through pairwise comparisons using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A weighted overlay analysis was then performed in ArcGIS to generate a spatial map of urban transformation necessity. Urban areas requiring transformation were prioritized according to expert assessments. As a result of the analysis, 23.1 ha were identified as first-priority, 8.8 ha as second-priority, and 62.2 ha as third-priority disaster risk-oriented urban transformation areas within the city center of Akşehir. The study demonstrates the applicability of GIS and AHP in identifying and prioritizing urban transformation areas in earthquake prone regions, particularly in Türkiye, and is expected to serve as a methodological reference for the development of disaster-oriented urban transformation strategies.