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Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the speed and scale at which intelligence organizations collect, analyze, and disseminate information. In turn, some are optimistic that AI will reduce the risks of intelligence failures. To evaluate this claim, this article puts AI debates in conversation with the literature on intelligence failures and strategic surprise. The article makes two core arguments. First, AI technologies are not likely to alleviate most causes of intelligence failures. Second, AI is generating new and unpredictable pathways to intelligence failures. Rather than offering a panacea, AI creates novel risks that may result in new sources of intelligence failures.
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Erica D Lonergan (2026) studied this question.
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