Borrowed blueprints, broken systems: the moderating effect of state capacities on the diffusion of “digital authoritarianism” in Eurasia

Authoritarian diffusion theories explain cooperation among autocracies to sustain stability through resources or policy learning. Existing research centres on autocracy promotion or “authoritarian gravity centres” like China and Russia, overlooking recipient regimes’ domestic contexts. This paper argues that state capacity moderates diffusion by shaping policy absorption, moving beyond policy convergence as evidence of diffusion. The argument draws on a comparative study of digital authoritarianism in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, based on secondary sources and 26 stakeholder interviews, and is tested with Feldstein’s Digital Repression Index and a novel 2003–2021 dataset on global diffusion exposure. Regression results show that state capacity mediates diffusion effects: weaker regimes, even when adopting foreign legislation or technologies, often fail to implement them due to limited financial and technical resources. Thus, diffusion outcomes depend not only on external influence but also on domestic institutional capacities.