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Cohort analysis shows declining conviction rates in Finland, suggesting reduced crime participation over time.
Cohort statistics on cumulative crime participation provide an alternative way to examine long-term change in crime and sanctions. Using Finnish register data on total birth cohorts 1962–2000 and information on all convictions from district courts, we present new estimates of male and female conviction rates in 39 consecutive birth cohorts. The results show that conviction rates have declined substantially when comparing the older birth cohorts to younger ones, with the decrease being most pronounced among men. The downward trend can be seen across all sanction types, indicating general decreases in criminal participation. Cohort-based conviction rates provide essential insights into the broader question of crime trends and should be regarded as a fundamental information source alongside other crime statistics.
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Beuker et al. (2026) studied this question.
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