European Security and Integration Order after the War in Ukraine (ESIO)

This paper develops a model for a European Security and Integration Order (ESIO) after the war in Ukraine. It proposes controlled interdependence as a stability mechanism: credible deterrence and societal resilience form the unconditional foundation, while controlled, reversible, and reciprocal cooperation complements this foundation without replacing it. The model rests on a parity-based transparency and control authority, reciprocally applicable verification, a sector-specific and non-blockable fallback mechanism, and a graduated transition path that ties every step to demonstrated rule-compliance. Questions of responsibility and reparation are addressed on a separate, rule-bound track grounded in international law. The paper understands itself as an institutional design and as an invitation to expert discussion of its assumptions, mechanisms, and limits.