Rentier Coalition in Brazil: Business Cycles and Financialisation from 2009 to 2023

This paper examines the economic and corporate cycle in Brazil by integrating a political economy perspective centred on the concept of the Power Bloc, drawing on the managerial behaviour of 125 major publicly listed non-financial corporations (NFCs). It investigates how shifts in the configuration of the Power Bloc across different political and macroeconomic contexts have shaped corporate strategies, profitability, and investment decisions in a context of increasing financialisation. The findings indicate that, although profits declined sharply up to 2015, culminating in losses during the 2015–2016 recession, they subsequently recovered, reaching record levels by 2021. However, this recovery did not translate into an expansion of productive investment. Instead, firms adopted a conservative strategy, prioritising debt amortisation, and a financialised strategy, prioritising dividend payouts over productive investment. This pattern reflects a reconfiguration of the Power Bloc following the Lava Jato crisis and the fall of the Dilma Rousseff administration, as subsequent governments reinforced orthodox liberal policies. The consolidation of rentier interests within state governance structures fostered a broad rentier coalition in Brazil. This financialised dynamic helps to explain the recent recovery in profits, the stagnation of productive investment, and, ultimately, the country's subdued economic growth.