The impact of climate change on offshore wind and solar resources in China seas

Good knowledge of offshore renewable resources is crucial for formulating appropriate energy strategies. However, it remains unclear how China's offshore wind and solar energy will respond to changing climate. Therefore, this study evaluates the effect of climate change on the potential, variability and complementarity of offshore wind and solar resources in China seas in the near future (2031–2060) and far future (2071–2100). The results show that the potential of China's offshore wind and solar resources is generally on a downward trend in the 21st century. Differences in wind and solar potential variation are observed at seasonal scales. During near-future summers, the central South China Sea region is expected to experience increased wind power density but decreased solar power density. Energy stability and complementarity will decrease over the two future periods. In addition, power generation in coastal provinces is calculated. The average annual combined power output in Guangdong province in the near future is 132.8 TWh, which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by around 58.5 million tons. These findings enhance the understanding of the extent to which China's offshore wind and solar resources can be exploited, in support of long-term climate change mitigation commitments.