To identify independent risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis and develop a nomogram for risk prediction.
Retrospective analysis of 289 patients who underwent ERCP at Jinzhong First People's Hospital from January 2020 to October 2025.
Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with PEP.
A nomogram was created based on identified risk factors and validated with performance metrics.
The incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis was 10.73% in the cohort.
Five risk factors for PEP were identified: sphincter of Oddi dysfunction, history of pancreatitis, pancreatic duct opacification, difficult cannulation, and guidewire access to the pancreatic duct (≥ 3 times).
The nomogram showed high predictive accuracy with AUC values of 0.922 in the training cohort and 0.915 in the validation cohort.