Long-term analysis of the meteorological factors on vegetation recovery after forest fire

Global climate change exerts significant pressure on natural ecosystems through rising temperatures, irregular precipitation patterns, and increasing drought frequency. These conditions create more favorable environments for forest fires by reducing fuel moisture and extending the fire season. This study examines vegetation recovery following the 2008 forest fire in the Menderes district of İzmir Province, a region highly susceptible to fires due to its Mediterranean climate and dense forest cover. The relationship between the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), derived from Landsat satellite imagery, and meteorological variables was modeled using the Ridge Regression method. Results show that relative and specific humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, and precipitation were positively associated with vegetation growth, while surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and air temperature showed a negative correlation. The experimental results proved that meteorological factors explain approximately 70% of post-fire vegetation recovery. The remaining 30% is attributed to soil properties, topography, post-fire restoration efforts, and ecological processes.