Managing Artificial Intelligence Investments in E-Commerce: The AI-Roi Method for Economic Efficiency Assessment in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Investments in artificial intelligence are increasingly becoming a major expense item for trading organizations, yet the decision to make them is usually taken without a clear economic calculation. The paper proposes the AI-ROI method, which assesses the efficiency of such investments in the investment terms familiar to an owner — net present value, internal rate of return, discounted payback period and profitability index — rather than through technical model metrics. The method targets small and medium-sized enterprises in e-commerce and proceeds in four steps: structuring costs, valuing benefits, forecasting cash flow and computing the indicators. Its distinctive feature is that it accounts for the specifics of AI projects: the elevated cost of capital in Russian conditions of 2026, the gradual degradation of models, computation in real cash flows and currency risk. A three-tier acceptability scale is introduced for SMEs. The method is tested on typical organizational profiles and on two act-confirmed implementations: even under deliberately cautious assumptions the projects paid off. The justification of AI investment thus becomes a reproducible managerial procedure, which matters most when capital is expensive. The scope of application is the management of digital transformation and investment planning of e-commerce organizations.