Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region

Extreme heatwaves threaten public health and economies. Using multi-source data from 1964–2023 and the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), we identified heatwaves and, with a generalized linear mixed model and Hurst-based intensity forecasting, assessed drivers and future trends across Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regions. (1) Duration, frequency, and the number of events increased by 18.7 days, 21.2 days, and 5.5 events, respectively. During the 2004–2023 period, HWD, HWF, and HWN accelerated, expanding from South Asia/Middle East to Central Asia, the Caucasus, and North Asia. In 1994–2023, centroids shifted west/south: frequency 2.54° W, 1.83° S; and intensity 1.17° W, 2.79° S. (2) Between 2000 and 2019, interaction effects exceeded single effects; dominant drivers shifted from SPEI and wind speed to shortwave radiation and NDVI. (3) Future intensification peaks in East Asia, the Iranian Plateau, and China’s east coast; with H ≥ 0.7, enhanced areas exceed 33% (max 37%), concentrated in Central and western West Asia.