A multivariate framework for assessing compound agroclimatic extremes across Europe

When multiple climate extremes such as heat, drought, and cold occur together, the combined damage to crops can exceed the impact of any single event. Most agricultural risk assessments consider only one hazard, leaving farmers and policymakers underprepared. Here we present a framework for characterizing such compound climate hazards during the potato growing season across Europe, using crop-specific temperature thresholds rather than generic meteorological definitions. Applying multivariate statistical models to historical data, we characterize 32 combinations of extreme events by their duration, intensity, and frequency. We find regional contrasts as Mediterranean areas experience persistent hot-dry conditions, while northern Europe faces intense cold-dry extremes. Triple compound events are up to 13 times more intense than double events. Cold-dry extremes occur 5–10 times more often than cold-wet combinations. These findings highlight the need for adaptation strategies that account for multiple simultaneous climate hazards, and the framework is transferable to other crops and regions. Compound agroclimatic extremes nonlinearly amplify hazard exposure for potato production across Europe, challenging traditional single-hazard approaches, according to a study using crop-specific thresholds and copula and vine-copula analysis.