This paper employs the Community Cohesion Model — a core analytical framework within the "Productive Political Philosophy" theoretical system — to conduct a systematic diagnosis of the long-term evolution of capitalist business cycles from the Industrial Revolution to the present. The model is structured around the foundational equation: Cohesion = Relations of Production × Material Foundation, where geography and climate set long-term constraints, the combination of technological level and effective industrial population constitutes the productive capacity, and relations of production serve as the final multiplier. This paper argues that the exponential growth of productive capacity far outstrips the linear growth of effective consumption capacity — a structural contradiction that constitutes the underlying root cause of periodic crises. However, consumption capacity is not confined to domestic bounds; states can temporarily access global consumption capacity to match domestic production through the outward projection of their relations of production — via colonial expansion, hegemonic institutional arrangements, or financialization. Thus, the core formula of this paper — the ratio of productive capacity to consumption capacity, defined as the crisis coefficient (κ) — is integrated into the framework of the Community Cohesion Model. The mechanism unfolds as follows: rising crisis coefficient → state acquires Kglobal via distorted R → acquisition distorts R (financialization, debt expansion) → distorted R erodes the productive foundation (TE × E × η) → D (cohesion) declines → next round requires larger false consumption capacity to delay crisis. The stagnation-crisis cycle is the inevitable outcome of this feedback loop, in which the crisis coefficient continues to expand irreversibly even after global consumption capacity has already been captured. Empirical analysis reveals three evolutionary phases: from 1857 to World War I, business cycles followed a roughly decadal boom-crisis pattern, during which the crisis coefficient could still be closed through market expansion. In the century since World War I, three medium-to-long boom-stagnation cycles of 30-40 years have occurred, where the crisis coefficient could no longer be resolved through conventional market mechanisms. In the future, these cycles will give way to a prolonged stagnation-crisis cycle — characterized by the absence of clear boom phases, with only alternations between stagnation and crisis. This paper further reveals that the ideological root of sustained financial bubble expansion lies in the "reclaimed subjectivity" of Western civilization: having lost the eternal coordinate system once provided by theocracy, it now fills the spiritual void with the infinite growth of numbers. Neoliberalism and financial capital constitute an "interdependent relationship. " This paper concludes that the end of the current stagnation-crisis cycle will come either through the productivity leap of a new industrial revolution or through the violent calibration of war and collapse. The contest between these two possibilities will determine the shape of great-power configurations and civilizational destinies for the next half-century. Upper-bound crisis; business cycles; crisis coefficient; stagnation-crisis cycle; technology-consumption scissors gap; reclaimed subjectivity; contemporary metaphysics; Community Cohesion Model
鑫培 骆 (Sun,) studied this question.