Randomized trial tests stablecoins' role as safe havens against crises in digital asset markets, indicating variability based on crisis type.
Stablecoins are widely treated as the internal refuge of digital asset markets. We test this role across the full crisis sequence of the market's recent history, covering the COVID crash, the Terra collapse, the FTX failure and the SVB banking episode, using daily data on nine USD-pegged stablecoins against Bitcoin and Ether from 2018 to 2026. Rolling correlations, safe-haven regressions, and crisis interactions with wild bootstrap inference yield four findings. The refuge rotates, and no coin holds the haven role across all four crises. In the banking episode, the roles were inverted, with USDC falling into discounts of more than 300 basis points. At the same time, Tether, a positive comover in the rest of the sample, earned the only significant crisis protection. Flight to quality is universal in activity and selective in price, confirmed by manipulation-proof on-chain transfers. The strongest tail protection comes from the crypto-collateralized DAI, whose deleveraging channel produced premia above 600 basis points in March 2020. Average peg fidelity does not predict haven capacity. The haven property of stablecoins is contingent on the type of crisis and coin design, with direct consequences for portfolio construction and reserve regulation.
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Furtado et al. (2026) studied this question.
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