Determinants of low fertility in China: does housing affordability matter?

China underwent a demographic transition in the 20 th century, which led to a decrease in fertility below the level necessary for population replacement. China’s fertility has been below replacement level for a long time, with the total fertility coefficient at 2.1 births per woman. At present, fertility continues to decline despite the abandonment of the population control policy. The reduction in fertility and the postponement of childbirth reflect the fact that younger people are increasingly unwilling to have children. Identifying the factors that influence fertility rates is important for understanding ways to increase fertility. The paper examines the factors affecting the Chinese fertility rate over the period from 2001 to 2021 using econometric models and data from 31 Chinese provinces. The author’s main research interest is to investigate the ways in which housing affordability and other control variables determine the relationship between socio-economic factors and birth rates in China’s provinces. The findings reveal that affordability of housing has a significant negative impact on fertility rates and that home ownership becomes a heavy burden for young people when they consider having children.