The catch-up effect in university performance among Hungarian minority students

This study examines the secondary school graduation results of 420 students from Hungarian national minority communities in the Carpathian Basin and assesses their predictive validity for university performance across two academic years. A temporal analysis of the results revealed a catch-up effect, with the average score of students who started with the lowest scores increasing by 5%. In the case of female students, weaker performance was strongly predicted in the first year, while in the case of male students, this trend appeared in the second year. Predictive validity improved by 15% in the Humanities, while in STEM fields it increased by almost 27%. Using settlement type as a moderating variable improved identification of second-year students with lower performance by 2%. Due to the substantial size of the demographic group, our research results help to understand Central Europe’s mobility trends, improve predictive models and analyze students’ academic performance.