This study applies International Relations theories—specifically Neoclassical Realism integrating with Selectorate Theory and Diversionary War Theory—to analyse the foreign policy orientations of Japan’s early modern samurai governments: the Ashikaga, Toyotomi, and Tokugawa regimes. Through theoretical and comparative analysis, it examines how domestic political and economic structures influenced the foreign policy decisions of authoritarian regimes. By comparing each regime’s approach toward Sinocentric regional order, the paper provides a structural explanation of how the distribution of power among domestic actors and leaders’ control over resources shaped Japan’s stance within the East Asian international order. Drawing on archival and secondary sources, the study argues that regimes with larger winning coalitions and limited access to domestic or international economic resources were more likely to pursue revisionist foreign policies. The case studies demonstrate that the Toyotomi regime’s revisionist stance toward the Sinocentric order stemmed largely from its inability to secure sufficient land and trade with China and Korea to maintain elite loyalty, whereas the Ashikaga and Tokugawa regimes maintained status quo policies due to their smaller coalitions and greater access to land redistribution and foreign trade. This study contributes to International Relations scholarship by demonstrating the applicability of modern IR theories to pre-modern contexts.
Choi et al. (Mon,) studied this question.