The Social Dimensions of Changing Water Levels in the Mackenzie River Basin

Hydrological conditions in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) are becoming increasingly variable due to climate change, permafrost degradation, and cumulative industrial impacts. While scientific assessments have documented many of these trends, far less is known about how changing water levels and flow patterns affect the daily lives, livelihoods, and cultural responsibilities of Indigenous Peoples across the Basin. This paper synthesizes basin wide Indigenous Knowledge related to water level and flow variability, drawing on 31 Indigenous-led research projects. The analysis highlights shared concerns across regions, including reduced travel safety, restricted access to harvesting areas, shifting river and lake behaviour, and emotional and spiritual impacts associated with hydrological extremes. These observations align with scientific evidence of earlier breakup, prolonged low-water periods, and increased hydrological unpredictability, while also revealing social and cultural dimensions not captured through conventional monitoring. By synthesizing basin wide Indigenous Knowledge of water level and flow variability, this study provides new insight into the cumulative social ecological consequences of freshwater change in the MRB and underscores the importance of Indigenous-led research and governance in responding to accelerating hydrological variability.