Long-Term Dynamics and Climatic Drivers of Vegetation Cover on the Loess Plateau (2000–2024)

Vegetation is a key component of ecosystems and a core indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem changes. Studying its spatio-temporal dynamics and natural drivers is essential for ecological restoration and management in the Loess Plateau, a region with fragile ecology and complex human-land interactions. Using data from 2000 to 2024, this study systematically investigated the spatio-temporal evolution patterns, future trends, and primary influencing factors of Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) by integrating the Dimidiate Pixel Model, trend analysis, Hurst index, and optimal parameter geographic detector methods. The results show that: (1) Over the 25 years, FVC on the Loess Plateau showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, with a spatial distribution pattern characterized as “low in the northwest and high in the southeast”, and notable variations across different land use types. (2) The FVC change trend was dominated by extremely significant and significant increases, accounting for 67.92% of the total area, while areas with no significant change accounted for 31.27%. Spatially, the central region exhibited strong persistence in its increasing trend, whereas the northwestern and southeastern margins tended to remain stable. (3) Precipitation was the most important single factor affecting FVC (explanatory power q = 0.4199). The interactive explanatory power of factors was higher than that of single factors, with precipitation and elevation having the strongest interaction (q = 0.5124). Land use type, as an anthropogenic proxy, also plays a significant regulatory role in FVC patterns. Using conventional remote sensing methods (dimidiate pixel model, trend analysis, Hurst index, and optimal parameter geographic detector), this study primarily contributes by extending the analysis period to 2024 and providing a focused assessment of post-2020 vegetation dynamics. This study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of FVC and quantifies the explanatory power of natural factors and land use as a human activity proxy on the Loess Plateau, providing a scientific basis for assessing regional ecological restoration effectiveness and optimizing ecological management strategies.