Relationship Between Green Bond Issuance and Carbon Intensity: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Approach

Understanding the relationship between green bond issuance and environmental performance is critical as governments, financial institutions, and investors seek to accelerate the transition toward a low-carbon economy. This study analyzes the relationship between green bond issuance and carbon intensity across 165 countries from 2015 to 2022. Two-way fixed-effects models reveal a negative and statistically significant association between green bond issuance and carbon intensity (GDP- and energy-based measures). Dynamic system GMM estimations confirm this relationship after accounting for persistence and endogeneity, with coefficients remaining negative and significant, while carbon intensity displays strong inertia (autoregressive coefficients: 0.864–0.928). Robustness checks—including the exclusion of the five largest issuers and the use of alternative dependent variables—sustain these findings, indicating a moderate, gradual impact of green bond markets on lowering carbon intensity.